Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 70204.446080 74235.854313 78272.159866 82613.582343 87148.109369 91741.543819 96743.364428
2025-04-13 63017.559015 69125.696344 75419.230913 82378.974866 89850.273282 97620.311695 106302.399100
2025-04-20 58822.528913 66413.937546 74413.244265 83451.159895 93358.768704 103869.405885 115842.744605
2025-04-27 55655.143944 64378.761244 73744.928478 84516.658526 96529.443579 109480.915767 124466.165997
2025-05-04 52763.400196 62356.078557 72826.653637 85056.744241 98900.536621 114035.090982 131780.808294
2025-05-11 50012.519164 60275.458534 71647.306617 85117.830203 100571.141311 117676.349201 137971.018571
2025-05-18 47726.248561 58567.954066 70747.915834 85361.422497 102330.428937 121324.585446 144100.176856
2025-05-25 45627.720126 56951.373723 69838.224150 85485.186852 103859.399878 124639.487638 149799.542148
2025-06-01 44288.299035 56144.269744 69796.760985 86553.357983 106430.875973 129119.952227 156830.613197
2025-06-08 42421.377630 54614.001773 68819.024802 86440.481172 107552.702404 131869.823441 161820.491675
2025-06-15 41450.213434 54112.552641 69020.678302 87691.669778 110260.467037 136464.674807 168981.435345
2025-06-22 40296.371122 53330.445831 68834.859571 88433.980218 112329.178376 140289.332501 175235.288379
2025-06-29 38853.738880 52150.499320 68135.343343 88534.749405 113624.278913 143213.651636 180465.505401
2025-07-06 37419.362571 50928.282814 67337.897169 88475.317010 114695.476352 145855.437917 185361.587266
2025-07-13 36677.311706 50549.656323 67559.445814 89653.931407 117271.382104 150316.102455 192474.498202
2025-07-20 35967.529730 50179.849023 67765.406099 90792.716970 119788.140719 154708.581019 199526.682440
2025-07-27 35044.248235 49496.931562 67543.941089 91367.221966 121585.468569 158215.524625 205507.038778
2025-08-03 33946.446171 48546.380049 66945.897093 91432.438617 122720.528852 160893.723753 210468.692660
2025-08-10 32992.644358 47752.651403 66519.687385 91690.678614 124079.678732 163840.699562 215767.814958
2025-08-17 32034.761357 46920.996374 66015.113492 91821.851413 125258.011701 166552.917057 220778.560521
2025-08-24 31541.465376 46696.751155 66289.867569 92953.673286 127713.246462 170874.069179 227825.733059
2025-08-31 30564.105407 45782.409209 65626.571760 92834.079332 128538.865372 173131.090805 232279.536939
2025-09-07 30206.863135 45705.955591 66065.966374 94159.643759 131237.243917 177773.291649 239774.675320